By Stephen Groves/Virginia Statehouse News
Tuesday, October 26, 2010

As Virginia prepares to redraw its voting lines to match up with the latest census numbers, the northern part of the state looks to gain a larger section in the statehouse, but what the new districts might look like remains to be seen.

As the Commonwealth has grown in the last 10 years, Northern Virginia has become the economic engine as well as most populous area. Many in the statehouse predict three or four House of Delegates seats will shift to the area.

“There’s no question that it’s going to enhance our concerns, the concerns of the region, and going to make our voice heard in the General Assembly,” said Del. Bob Brink (D-48), who represents Arlington.

Northern Virginia lawmakers agreed they would use this louder voice to bring up transportation issues in the statehouse. Traffic has clogged the highways of northern Virginia for years.

Del. Mark Sickles (D-43) of Franconia said that between the Northern Virginia and the Hampton Roads area, where traffic also is a major concern, the representatives from those areas could likely outweigh the rest of the state if they allied.

Education funding was another concern on which lawmakers said they could use their weight.

“Northern Virginia is the economic engine of the state and deserves more resource allocation,” Brink said.

In the last decade, Virginia’s population has grown 11.4 percent to about 7.8 million people. Most of the growth has been in the metropolitan areas, while rural areas and small towns have seen fewer people living there.

The largest growth has been in the areas around Washington. Loudoun and Prince William counties both gained more than 100,000 people. Alexandria grew modestly from 128,000 to 150,000 in the last decade. Fairfax County also saw a jump of about 63,000 people.

“We know there’s a lot of population growth … so there’s going to be a lot of changes,” said Sen. Mary Margaret Whipple (D-31) of Arlington.

While some areas of Northern Virginia such as Alexandria and Mount Vernon have had steady population growth that puts those districts close to the estimated ideal for a House or Senate district, they could still see some change.

“Every time you change one line, you have to change another,” Whipple said.

But for the first time in the modern history of redistricting, the General Assembly is split between a Republican House and Democratic Senate. Also only 59 of the 140 lawmakers in the statehouse served during the 2001 redistricting. Throw in a Republican governor who has veto power to amend the redistricting, and it’s “a big monkey-wrench,” said Michael McDonald, a politics professor at George Mason and nationally recognized expert on redistricting.

To make matters worse, Virginia has the smallest time period in the nation to approve the new districts. When the latest census numbers come out in February, Virginia has less than two months to have new districts approved. They must draw the districts 60 days before the June 2011 primary elections so the Department of Justice has time to review the districts and approve them.

What this adds up to is a “you scratch my back, I’ll scratch yours” deal likely being worked out between the House and Senate said McDonald. Each legislative body will approve the plan that the other comes up with for their districts.

Incumbents will protect their districts if this system goes according to plan. But this will not leave everyone happy.

“Partisan redistricting is not good for democracy,” Sickles said.

In Northern Virginia, which will gain several House of Delegates seats, this could be interesting. The Republican held House might try to fit a Republican district or two into the Democrat-dominated north.

“There will be some very funny looking districts,” McDonald said, suggesting that Republicans may try to draw “spoke-and-wheel” districts that start stretch out from urban centers to the suburbs.

“It’s my hope that redistricting is fair … that communities of interest are kept the same,” said Del. Charniele Herring (D-46) of Alexandria.

But McDonald said parties may be able to make short-term gains by redrawing lines, but in the long run, an area gravitates to one party historically.

“I wouldn’t be salivating if I was a Republican trying to draw Republican districts in Northern Virginia,” he said.

For now, lawmakers are watching the series of public forums on redistricting being held around the state. And waiting for the mad dash that will fill the statehouse when census numbers are released in February.